gdf999win 发表于 2023-6-15 22:24:50

骰子、輪盤、撲克牌|想贏這些遊戲,大數定律必須了解

許多娛樂城的遊戲都有這幾項,今天來跟大家聊聊這些遊戲的原理在測量一個特定長度a時,單次測量的結果可能與a不完全相等,而進行多次測量後的算術平均值也不一定等於a。然而,當進行大量測量時,算術平均值接近於a幾乎成為必然的趨勢。舉例來說,考慮擲一顆均勻的正六面骰子,每個面出現的概率是相等的,即為1/6。在進行較少次數的擲骰操作時,出現某個特定點數的頻率可能與1/6有很大差異。然而,當進行大量擲骰次數時,出現該點數的頻率接近於1/6幾乎成為必然的趨勢。同樣地,在轉動輪盤並觀察小球落入36號的情況下,36號出現的概率為1/37。當進行較少次數的轉動操作時,出現36號的頻率可能與1/37存在顯著差異。然而,當進行大量轉動次數時,出現36號的頻率接近於1/37幾乎成為必然的趨勢。因此,以更專業的語氣來說,當進行大量次數的測量或觀察時,頻率接近於概率值幾乎成為一個確定的現象,並展現了概率理論中的重要原理。從一副牌盒中取出一張牌的例子來說,出現「K」牌的概率為1/13。在取牌的次數較少時,出現「K」的頻率可能與1/13有著明顯的差異。然而,當進行大量取牌次數時,出現「K」的頻率接近於1/13幾乎成為必然的趨勢。另一個例子是從一副牌中隨機抽取五張牌,出現一對的概率為0.42。在抽牌的次數較少時,出現一對的頻率可能與0.42存在顯著差異。然而,當進行大量抽牌次數時,出現一對的頻率接近於0.42,這幾乎成為必然的趨勢。這些例子說明了一個重要觀點,即與個別隨機事件的結果無法預知不同,大量隨機事件的平均結果幾乎不再是隨機的,而是具有可預測性的。此外,這些結果與個別隨機事件的結果無關。這就是概率論中大數定律的概念,它由「頻率穩定性」所推導出來,成為整個概率論的基礎。

xelozz 发表于 2024-5-8 07:32:47

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xelozz 发表于 2024-5-8 07:33:51

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xelozz 发表于 2024-6-2 03:48:08

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xelozz 发表于 2024-6-2 03:49:10

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